Montana Senate — the nation’s highest stakes race
July unmasked unprecedented turmoil in the social and political fabric of America: an assassination attempt on the GOP Presidential nominee and a “hot-swap” of apparent Democratic nominee Kamala Harris, who did not appear on a single Democratic primary ballot. Just 92 days from this year’s general election, the top of the ticket already promises a historic race. Montana is unlikely to swerve from going red for Trump: Republican presidential candidates have won Montana by double-digit margins since 2012. Trump carried Montana by 26 points in 2016 and 16 points in 2020.
The nation is watching Montana, however, with the country’s highest stakes Senate contest likely to shape the next generation of U.S. politics. .Democrats currently control the Senate by a two-seat margin. The balance of power could shift this November as two red states, Montana and Ohio, feature Democrat incumbent Senators up for election. Recent polling shows GOP challenger, former Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy, leading Democratic career politician Jon Tester, by a four to five point margin in Montana.
The differences in their campaigns show the broader struggle of a Republican and independent electorate against the Washington establishment, and Democratic candidates distancing themselves from the Biden-Harris administration. Here’s a pulse check on the state of the US Senate race with fewer than one hundred days until the November 5th general election.
STATE OF THE RACE: GROUND GAME
Sheehy has been hosting meet-and-greet events across the state, showing his command of retail politics.
INCREDIBLE DAY on the trail:
— Tim Sheehy (@SheehyforMT) July 19, 2024
✅ Whitehall
✅ Dillon
✅ Twin Bridges
✅ Ennis
So grateful for all the support — together, we will win in November and FINALLY #RetireTester and #SaveAmerica!! pic.twitter.com/hnatmb8Ev7
Sheehy spoke at the Republican National Convention in July, when Donald J. Trump was formally nominated as the 2024 Republican candidate for President. Sheehy’s comments at the RNC, widely circulated on social media, zeroed in on issues pulling at the country’s social fabric, showing a campaign focused on issues.
We need political outsiders like President Trump to bring back COMMON SENSE.
— Tim Sheehy (@SheehyforMT) July 17, 2024
Secure border. Safe streets. Cheap gas. Cops are good, criminals are bad. Boys are boys, and girls are girls.
That’s how we save America! #RetireTester pic.twitter.com/LtP3a8nRo0
Now, in August, Young Republican groups across Montana are hosting grassroots phone banking and door knocking “deployments,” for the Sheehy camp. Trump plans to hold a rally in Bozeman scheduled for August 9 at the Brick Breeden Fieldhouse. Trump’s thunderous rallies are known to energize voters, and the Sheehy camp could capitalize on Trump’s anti-establishment energy.
Trump endorsed Tim Sheehy for Senate in April of this year, and Trump’s prospects in Montana are very promising. Trump’s decision to campaign alongside Sheehy could shape the strategic landscape of the race Montana’s Senate seat.
Tester Campaign
Notably, Democratic incumbent Tester’s August agenda does not include attending the Democratic National Convention. The high-visibility DNC could prove an overly partisan event that could controvert Tester’s need to campaign as a moderate.
Instead, on the eve of Pearl Jam’s August 22 concert at the University of Montana’s Washington-Grizzly Stadium, Tester is hosting a fundraiser with Pearl Jam bassist, Jeff Ament. The fundraiser’s reception with Ament is open to supporters donating $400 or more to Tester’s re-election bid. Tester hosted a similar fundraising event with Pearl Jam in 2012.
However, Tester has been criticized for his pattern of violent rhetoric towards former President Donald Trump. In his 2020 book “Grounded: A Rural Democrat’s Fight to Unite a Divided America,” Tester describes seeing Pearl Jam posters featuring grisly imagery of a deceased President Trump. “I actually loved it,” Tester wrote of the imagery. “The big news [of the evening of the concert] wasn’t the music, it was the artwork,” Tester wrote.
Jon Tester quietly praised Pearl Jam poster depicting Trump dead, records show https://t.co/zJh2op5QUT
— Washington Examiner (@dcexaminer) August 1, 2024
Tester’s remarks stand in contrast with his current activity, which focuses on retail politics.
CANDIDATE MESSAGING
Messaging from Tester’s campaign has maintained the tone expected from such a fragile seat: subdued. Tester has stuck to the highlights: “I’ll keep working for Montana,” “I’ll fight for Montana with all I’ve got,” rallying around inoffensive, bipartisan issues without offering clarity on flashpoints. Tester has been sticking to feel-good highlights, posting congratulations for local Missoula Olympian, Katharine Berkoff, for winning Bronze in the womens’ 100 meter backstroke final, about the need for high-speed internet access, and Pride celebration greetings.
Team Tester was out in Helena today for Pride! 🏳️🌈 pic.twitter.com/aJSVHUavNV
— Jon Tester (@jontester) August 4, 2024
Sheehy has been laser-focused on policy: the Second Amendment, skyrocketing national debt, and “keeping public lands in public hands.” Sheehy has also condemned competition by male athletes in women’s sports, including a recent Olympic boxing incident that saw a female athlete pitted against a male competitor.
Their divergence in campaign messaging shows Tester’s precarious position and the delicate prospects for a liberal Senator in a deep red state. As the Democratic party has veered left, Tester remains on a tightrope. The senator doesn’t often mention party affiliation on media platforms or in campaign advertising, while his Senate votes have left him tied to the Biden administration’s agenda, a record he will need undecided voters to overlook.
FUNDRAISING
Tester’s committee has raised over $39 million for the 2024 race, while Sheehy has raised $14 million. With Tester’s fundraising more than tripling Sheehy’s, Montana could be witnessing David squaring up against Goliath. Recent polling shows Sheehy with a five point lead.
Tester has also managed to top the list of lobbying cash, surpassing even Kamala Harris and Kevin MacCarthy. In the 2023-2024 cycle, Tester received just shy of half a million dollars from lobbying groups. Exceeding contribution figures to Kamala Harris (D-CA) and Bob Casey (D-PA), Tester ranks number one at $492,982 received from lobbyists just this year.
Lobbying groups that contributed to Tester this cycle include PACs for Boeing, Exxon Mobil, Northrop Grumman, and Wells Fargo. Tester’s financials are indicative of both the stakes of the Montana race, and Tester’s critical roles on the Senate Defense Subcommittee and the Banking Committee.
Tester has also enjoyed tailwinds from PACs attacking opponents in hopes of weakening the Senator’s general election competition. In 2018, Patriot Majority USA spent over $4 million on Tester’s GOP opponent. Similarly, the Last Best Place PAC, connected to Chuck Shumer (D-NY), spent nearly six million dollars targeting Tester’s political rivals.
NATIONAL IMPACT
As Americans are eyeing the historic 2024 presidential contest, Montana’s US Senate seat is a close second in terms of national impact. Tester’s vote has guaranteed the democratic majority controlled Senate’s agenda on a narrow margin.
Sheehy’s projected lead in the race may speak to Montanans alignment with Trump, and therefore a MAGA-aligned Senate challenger, though it may also portend a broader shift in the U.S. political landscape. That shift, in which democrats, and the changing face of the new Democratic Party, are unable to represent the interests of everyday Americans may well be demonstrated in Montana’s bellwether contest.
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