state | national

ANALYSIS: Why Montana is key to the nation's immigration problem

By Big Sky Prospector on Jun 25, 2024

Democratic Senator Jon Tester’s glut of primary ads — backed by unprecedented spending on a Senate race, more per capita than any other state this cycle — tout a “tough on the border” stance. Outsized spending in Montana highlights Democratic alarm in a year immigration could prove decisive and control of the Senate is at stake.

Meanwhile, Tester’s vote on the Democrat-controlled Senate floor has become a linchpin of enacting democratic policies, including, lately, immigration. Tester cast a  decisive vote to dismiss impeachment charges against embattled DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas earlier this year. Paradoxically, he signed on in May as cosponsor of the Laken Riley Act this spring.


Can he thread the needle with Montana voters and maintain a critical Senate seat — a Blue Senator in a Red State — by claiming the mantle of a border hawk in an election where immigration will be a central issue? 

Highlights

  • Democratic PACs recently committed to $53 million in Montana ad spending; Tester himself has raised more than $39 million so far.

  • Outsized spending highlights the importance of the race to democratic policy objectives. 

  • Tester’s vote is key to maintaining a democratic Senate majority and the Biden Administration’s border policies

  • Tester’s disparate position in two recent Senate moves, voting against Mayorkas’ impeachment and cosponsoring the Laken Riley Act, shows Democrats’ precarious footing between Montana and Washington.

Tester’s Vote a Deciding Factor: 

The story of Laken Hope Riley, the American, 22-year old nursing student who was killed while jogging on the University of Georgia campus in February rocked the nation, spurring legislative action in the House of Representatives.  The suspect arrested for Riley’s murder, Jose Antonio Ibarra, is a 26-year old Venezuelan man who illegally entered the United States in 2022.  After his illegal entry, Ibarra was charged with several crimes in multiple states in 2023, culminating in the murder of Riley in early 2024.  

Ibarra had a long rap sheet. The Laken Riley Act, which would mandate the detainment of illegal aliens who commit crimes, would have prevented Riley’s death, legislators say.  Had Ibarra been deported or detained following his multiple arrests in the United States, he would not have gone on to kill. 


Balancing Washington and Montana


The Laken Riley Act passed with bipartisan support in the House, but the vote is expected to be much tighter in the Democrat-controlled Senate. Tester’s vote could prove a deciding factor. 

On the other hand, Sen. Ted Budd (R-North Carolina) attempted to pass the bill through the Senate in March, but was blocked by Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Illinois). With the Senate’s slim Democratic majority, and the possibility the bill stalls there, it could be Tester will attempt to capitalize at home on his cosponsorship in hopes of notching a win.

Whether the Laken Riley Act sees the Senate floor again, it’s clear both democratic control of the Senate, and the Biden Administration’s immigration agenda, pass through Montana.

Go Deeper

Who was Laken Riley? 

  • Laken Hope Riley was an American 22-year old nursing student.  Riley was killed while jogging on University of Georgia’s campus on February 22, 2024.  

  • Riley’s body was found within an hour of being reported missing after not returning after her run.  According to the county coroner, Riley’s death was caused by blunt force trauma and asphyxiation.  

  • A 26-year old Venezuelan male, Jose Antonio Ibarra, was the only suspect arrested in the investigation of Laken’s death, and his trial will be held in the fall of 2024.  

  • Ibarra entered America illegally in 2022 and, under the Biden Administration’s border policies, was paroled and released.  In 2023, Ibarra was charged with acting in a manner to injure a minor in New York and was accused of theft in Georgia.  

What is the Laken Riley Act? 

  • The Laken Riley Act, if passed into law, would require the Department of Homeland Security to detain illegal aliens who have prior arrests for burglary, larceny, theft, or shoplifting. 

  • The Laken Riley Act also authorizes state governments to sue the federal government should its residents be harmed by the federal government’s decisions.  The move by DHS, for example, to release an alien from custody, to fail to conduct proper asylum interviews, or to fail to detain a person who has been ordered for deportation – all would qualify for the state to sue for damages inflicted by that alien.  



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